Everything

Unless she wants to risk using vulgar magick, the exact results of Fate and Fortune remain beyond a mage’s control. She can nudge things, arrange things, adjust the probability of things happening, and so forth. Unless she is actually wrenching things in her favor with vulgar magick, however – like using

vulgar Entropy 4 to make a floor collapse – the exact results of the probability twist are under the Storyteller’s control, not the player’s command.

Let’s say that Jinx wants to make like Lola at the roulette table in the movie Run Lola Run. She needs money, and the casino seems like a good place to score some. A coincidental probability Effect may allow her to win the money, but the way in which she wins that money is the Storyteller’s call. If the player wants to determine the exact method that Fate and Fortune give her that money, then the Storyteller is within his rights to tell the player that it’s a vulgar Effect because she’s pushing hard against the normal tides of probability. He might still decide that letting the roulette ball fall in the right place at the right time to score the right amount of money is a coincidence, but it’s still the Storyteller’s decision, and that is one hell of a “coincidence.”

(You could, if were so inclined, view the shattering glass in the casino as a Paradox backlash for Lola pulling a vulgar Entropic Effect in order to win the money at roulette. This might be overthinking a cinematic example, although it could also lead to an interesting discussion on somebody’s Facebook page… and if that discussion gets more folks to watch Run Lola Run, so much the better!)